Francis Fukuyama, a prominent political scientist and professor at Stanford University, has stated in a recent article published in the U.S. magazine Persuasion that the United States “has never been more isolated than it is today.”
Referring to his book written three decades ago titled Trust: The Social Virtues and the Creation of Prosperity, Fukuyama recalls that at the time he described the United States as a “high-trust society.” He now says that if he were to write the book today, he would no longer describe the United States in that way.
Fukuyama also rejects Donald Trump’s claim that the United States was more respected than ever during his presidency, calling it “one of the most absurd” statements he has made. He emphasizes that in the current situation, the United States faces unprecedented levels of distrust from both its traditional allies and its rivals.
According to him, since the 1990s, political polarization in the United States has increased and has reached what political scientists call “affective polarization,” a condition in which political groups not only disagree with one another but also view each other as malicious and dishonest. Fukuyama argues that the result of this trend has been a decline in public trust and a weakening of social capital at the broader societal level.
He also notes that in such circumstances, distrust has spread throughout society, and even agreement on a shared set of facts has weakened. According to Fukuyama, this situation has been accompanied by the rise of conspiracy theories.
Fukuyama further extends the concept of trust to international relations, emphasizing that countries, like individuals, trust one another based on observable behavior. He notes that in the international system, there is no ultimate authority to enforce rules, and in such conditions “credibility” becomes the main factor regulating relations. From this perspective, any weakening in the predictability of a country’s behavior can lead to a decline in trust by other international actors.
Within this framework, he refers to recent developments, saying that the ongoing war with Iran and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz are likely signs of a “fundamental rupture” in the North Atlantic security structure. According to him, NATO as an alliance is built on mutual trust, and its deterrence function depends on the belief that members will support one another in case of threat. However, Fukuyama stresses that this commitment relates to collective defense and does not include participation in offensive wars.
Fukuyama further writes that in the current situation, the United States faces a level of isolation unprecedented in its history. He explains that although some European officials have taken supportive positions during the recent crisis, these actions should not be seen as evidence of lasting trust, but rather as the result of cautious calculation. According to him, European leaders cannot confidently assume that support for the United States would be met with reciprocity in the future.
He also points to the impact of this situation on rivals, stating that although some U.S. actions may have benefited countries such as Russia and China, these countries also cannot reliably depend on the United States to secure their interests. Therefore, the decline in trust toward the United States affects both its relationships with allies and with competitors.
According to Fukuyama, in international relations as in interpersonal interactions, a minimum level of trust is essential for success, and this requires adherence to commitments and reciprocity. He concludes that the erosion of these principles has played a significant role in shaping the current situation.
